Not the depreciation of hryvnia, as usual, but of the US dollar. Record for revaluation, but not for its duration SinceUkrainians have been accustomed to the devaluation of hryvniawhich value has collapsed more than three times during this time - from 8 to 26 hryvnias for 1 dollar.
Questions and answers:
So the current strengthening seems almost a miracle that has not happened before. Indeed, such an opinion is true, but only partially. However, the history of the Ukrainian hryvnia indicates that there were two periods for 2 and 3 years when the average annual hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar not only did not grow but even decreased. This path began inwhen the average annual hryvnia exchange rate stopped at around 5,37 hryvnia per 1 dollar, while a year earlier the rate was 5, The rate dropped by another 5 kopecks duringbut a year later, the dollar added 1 kopeck to its value.
But the very next year,took away 2 kopecks from the dollar and fixed the average annual exchange rate at 5,31 hryvnia per 1 USD.
Inthe average annual rate remained the same as a year earlier — 5,05 hryvnia, but already in against the backdrop of the financial and economic crisis, it rose to 5, The next year was much harder, and in the hryvnia fell up to 7,79 for 1 dollar.
Since then, the average annual hryvnia - dollar exchange rate has only fallen, with the exception ofwhen the average annual ratio of the national currency to the dollar remained at the level of — 7,99 hryvnia.
Does strong hryvnia mean economic growth? The mechanism of influence on the national economy of the ratio of the hryvnia to the dollar is rather complicated, but it would seem that this can be judged, rather, by the results - the growth of the economy and gross domestic product.
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Inwhen the longest revaluation of the hryvnia against the dollar took place, the domestic economy grew at a record pace: from Inwhen the devaluation occurred, the nominal GDP of Ukraine in dollars fell by Related: Government loans and hryvnia exchange rate: What's wrong with Ukraine's National Bank At the same time, the period of growth of the domestic economy coincided with the growth of the world economy, which raised the prices of exported goods from Ukraine, primarily metals.
Similarly, the fall of the economy in was caused, rather, by the outbreak of the global economic crisis, collapsing global markets and the national currency.
In general, in January-Augustthe Ukrainian industry grew by only 0.
However, here, rather, the seasonal factor of summer plays a role, when business activity is noticeably reduced. The strengthening of hryvnia ruins the budget Suddenly, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine opposed the strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar.
IMM Economics In the summer you can earn in agriculture or in the tourist industry. In Western and Northern Europe, the work connected with the harvesting in the South and in the Eastern countries are looking for waiters and workers in hotels.
According to how to quickly earn 15 thousand hryvnia expert Olexander Okhrimenko, there is nothing surprising in the position of the Ministry of Finance.
At the same time, according to the Ukrainian Institute of the Future economic expert, the strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar in the future may lead to an increase in the foreign trade deficit. Olexander Okhrimenko named three areas in which the effect of the how to quickly earn 15 thousand hryvnia revaluation is most positive: 1 if not price reduction, then at least its stabilization; 2 the strengthening of the national currency makes the real salary slightly higher, that is, it increases the well-being of the population; 3 depreciation of the national currency is always a bad signal for a business that wants to take a break and wait a moment, while strengthening the course inspire the business to invest more in the development of the economy.
Cost of Living in Kiev
Vitaliy Shapran fron the National Bank recalls the positive role of the hryvnia revaluation in relation to the public debt of Ukraine, because the strengthening of the national currency leads to a decrease in the cost of servicing the public debt, part of which is denominated in US dollars and euros. The population feels more comfortable with the revaluation trend, since the majority of incomes are tied to the hryvnia, and revaluation for many is an expansion of opportunities to purchase imports.
The choice between economic growth and its collapse Experts, noting the positive impact on the domestic economy, unanimously talk about the dangers of this process, which could cause serious depreciation of the hryvnia in the future. So, economist Viktor Skarshevsky directly linked the hryvnia exchange rate appreciation with the growth of the domestic government loan bond portfolio in the hands of foreign buyers, which has the best bitcoin earnings Related: How to strengthen trust of Ukrainians in hryvnia?
He considers the high hryvnia exchange rate artificial due to speculative capital and other factors affecting the exchange rate. He also mentions a decreased capital outflow from the country in anticipation of the launch of the land market.
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All this, he said, leads to the fact that Ukraine today accumulates risks for the future. Of course, the NBU is building up its foreign exchange reserves through capital inflows, but this "airbag", in my opinion, is not intended to change trends in the foreign exchange market, but only to eliminate sharp fluctuations, "says Olexander Okhrimenko, who sees the main threat to the hryvnia exchange rate and the economy in the government bonds market, more precisely in its opacity.
If domestic government bonds are bought by serious foreign investment funds, you can be calm - they see a future for themselves, and serious shocks should not be how to quickly earn 15 thousand hryvnia.